PERT or 3 point fotmula ?

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PERT or 3 point fotmula ?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:11 pm

A project manager is uncertain about the duration of a new product and consults several groups of subject matter experts (SMEs). The first group advises that development can be finished in 25
days. The second group identifies some risks that could make the duration up to 40 days. The third group proposes a new development method that can shorten the time to 10 days.

What is the estimated development duration for the new product?

A. 23 days

B. 25 days

C. 27 days

D. 30 days

The correct answer and my answer are same i.e B. 25. Here the issues is that I used 3 point estimate (25+40+10)/3 = 25 and the solution of question mentions that they used PERT [10 + 4(25) + 40]/6 = 25. Both answer are same but my formula was wrong. This is because question does not mentions if they need estimate via PERT or 3 point method. Also they didn't mentioned in the the question which of the values is Pessimistic, Optimistic and Most Likely. So how can I figure out in the real exam that which formula I should be using to solve the question ?
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Re: PERT or 3 point fotmula ?

Mon May 03, 2021 12:58 am

when we have good expertise in the project or we have a lot of historical background of similar projects then we should give more weightage to most likely estimates and use PERT otherwise all estimates should carry equal weightage and we should use 3 point
Since the estimates in the question are coming from SMEs we should use PERT

Last bumped by Anonymous on Mon May 03, 2021 12:58 am.
Manish P
PMP, PMI - ACP, SAFe Agilist ... ification/

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